Contrarian Value Investing

Value Investing Pro is Now Live

alexg — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 21:57:37 +0000

For the past couple of weeks I have been working on my premium site and making sure the bugs and glitches will be kept to a minimum. On Thursday, the site went live for the individuals who opted in to our mailing list and we actually had some people join!!! Now is your chance to become a value investor. You’re probably wondering how much it costs to join, right? $5/mo for the next 15 days for as long as you stay a member. This price is for friends, family and people who give the program a chance from the beginning. I also understand the site is not 100% complete. After that the price will go up to $10/mo which is still reasonable.

The site is basically all my notes from watching, reading and practicing value investing for the past 5 years. I have evolved over time and now have a system in place for choosing stocks. I spend about 5 hours total and have been able to compile amazing results.

Head over to Value Investing Pro

Or

You Can Check Out Our Sleazy Sales page

What will happen to CVI?

I plan to update the blog accordingly. This will turn more into a journal of how the premium site is going sprinkled in with some value investing news. The RSS feed will be transferred over to Value Investing Pro (next week), so if you want to keep tabs you might have to resubscribe to this site. I also plan to launch a Value Investing Newsletter that will be delivered monthly, it will include prizes, value investing news, videos,etc… It will be free.

That’s it for now, see you on the inside

Check out Value Investing Pro

Magic Formula Stocks On The Move 6.20.09

alexg — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 16:07:41 +0000

Each week I track which stocks are moving in and out of the top 30 and 50 from the Magic Formula Screen. This screen in ran for companies with a minimum market cap of 50, 2000, and 5000 million. Here are the moves for the week ended 6-20-09 on the top 50 lists.

Top 50/50 Million:

In:

Bridgepoint Education, Inc. (BPI)
Cherokee Inc. (CHKE)
GP Strategies Corporation (GPX)
GameStop Corp (GME)
LoopNet, Inc. (LOOP)
Universal Travel Group (UTA)

Out:

Deltek, Inc. (PROJ)
GigaMedia Limited (GIGM)
MicroStrategy Inco (MSTR)
Oncothyreon Inc. (ONTY)
Pain Therapeutics, Inc. (PTIE)
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

Top 50/2000 Million

In:

Cameron International Corporation (CAM)
Amdocs Limited (DOX)
Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK)

Out:

Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (DO)
Pharmaceutical Product Development, Inc. (PPDI)
Weight Watchers International, Inc. (WTW)

Top 50/5000 Million

In:

Baker Hughes Incorporated (BHI)
Murphy Oil Corp (MUR)
eBay Inc. (EBAY)

Out

Covidien plc (COV)
Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. (DPS)
Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings (LH)

Magic Formula Stocks On The Move 6-13-09

alexg — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 14:45:44 +0000

Top 50/50 Million:

In:

Bio-Imaging Technologies, Inc. (BITI)
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. (BR)
Deltek, Inc. (PROJ)
Forest Laboratories, Inc. (FRX)
GigaMedia Limited (GIGM)
Lorillard, Inc. (LO)
Oncothyreon Inc. (ONTY)
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
SurModics, Inc. (SRDX)
Perini Corporation (TPC)
Virgin Mobile USA, Inc. (VM)
ViroPharma Incorporated (VPHM)

Out:

Cherokee Inc (CHKE)
ClickSoftware Technologies Ltd (CKSW)
Dell Inc. (DELL)
Fluor Corporation (FLR)
Jackson Hewitt Tax Service, Inc (JTX)
KBR, Inc. (KBR)
Korn/Ferry International (KFY)
Mesabi Trust (MSB)
QLT Inc. (QLTI)
Qiao Xing Mobile Communication Co., Ltd. (QXM)
Ulticom,Inc (ULCM)
Viacom Inc (VIA.B)

Top 50/2000 Million

In:

Biovail Corporation (BVF)
Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc. (ENDP)
Forest Laboratories, Inc. (FRX)
Precision Castparts Corp (PCP)
Weight Watchers International, Inc. (WTW)

Out:

Expedia, Inc. (EXPE)
Flowserve Corporation (FLS)
ITT Corp (ITT)
Polo Ralph Lauren Corp (RL)
Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK)

Top 50/5000 Million

n/a this week

Magic Formula Results

alexg — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 21:15:50 +0000

If you have been reading this blog for a while, you know I am a magic formula investor. I believed in the system from the beginning and have stuck with it even as there were rough patches on along the way. My biggest mistake was not being 100% in the system. The contrarian in me couldn’t resist picking up certain companies that weren’t in the magic formula , Wells Fargo (WFC), General Growth Properties (OTC:GGWPQ), etc.. I bring this up because the graphs and numbers aren’t real (this post was inspired by George to post my marketocracy results). If I post my investment record +financials+ microcraps, there would be a bit better due to the recent run-up in General Growth Properties. A couple things in mind when looking at these numbers

Still short term results
I pick stocks part time, doing basic security analysis by using a 3 step-30 second approach which will be outlined in my premium site. I do not care whether its May. I do not care who is going to win the super bowl. I do not care what the economy will do. All I care is purchasing 1$ for 50 cents. It could be a 50 million market cap, it could be a 100 billion market cap. The principle is the name, purchasing dollars for 50 cents makes sense.
These portfolios are 100% magic formula investing stock
I do not look at beta. I do not look at sharpe ratios. I do not look at Z-Scores.

Finally, for those who are going to e-mail me bashing me that this is fake money. It is. The point in this post is to show you the results that can be obtained by the magic formula. Financials are not part of the magic formula. My premium website ( $10 freakin bucks a month C’MON!!) will verify my portfolio through Covestor.com.

Concentrated Portfolio

Magic Formula Stocks using ONLY 3 step-30 Second Approach

Magic Formula 30 second- 3 step approach+ Basic Security Analysis

How about some TECH+Magic Formula

3 Peter Lynch Videos You Might Have Missed

alexg — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 04:18:43 +0000

Maybe because he retired in 1990, Peter Lynch has been lost in the shuffle as one of the industry’s top fund managers. Over his course of his investment career(late 70’s-1990), Peter Lynch averaged a 29% average return before stepping down at the helm of the then largest mutual fund, Fidelity Magallen. Unfortunately, Lynch semi-retired before the internet really took off and thus he doesn’t get the kind of exposure as Warren Buffett, Martin Whitman,etc. whose speeches, annual reports are constantly being reported by media and the blogosphere.

Peter Lynch and Sir John Templeton

In this video, Lynch covers some of his rules for successful stock market investing as described in his books.

Stock price usually follows a companies profits
Buy what you know (at the right price)
Timing is tough

Peter Lynch On The Stock Market

I do not know the exact date of this video, but that’s irrelevant in my opinion. It’s good to have knowledge on the history of the stock market and how to manage a portfolio during market downturns, such as knowing which kind of stocks to own, what to do with market
surprises,etc.. This video covers some of the basics.

Peter Lynch On Bottom Fishing

A couple of words on bottom fishing: Good luck!!!!

Anyone know the name of the other individual in the third video? If you do, congrats you are a stock market junkie

Magic Formula Stocks On The Move 5-31-09

alexg — Sun, 31 May 2009 21:57:14 +0000

Each week I track which stocks are moving in and out of the top 30 Magic Formula Stocks for companies with a minimum market cap of 50 and 2000 million. Here are the moves for the week ended 5-31-09.

Top 30/50 Million:

In:

Innophos Holdings, Inc. (IPHS)
Universal Travel Group (UTA)

Out:

Airvana, Inc. (AIRV)
Ulticom, Inc (ULCM)

Top 30/2000 Million

In:

Biovail Corporation (BVF)
CGI Group, Inc (GIB)

Out:

Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (DO)
Joy Global, Inc. (JOYG)

Learn Value Investing

alexg — Tue, 26 May 2009 20:23:00 +0000

If you want to learn value investing, now is the time. Despite the recent run up, several companies are out there in which they have a ton of cash on the balance sheet, producing tons of free cash flow, and have little to no debt and yet are being given away at bargain prices. You won’t find these companies on CNBC, Bloomberg and Fox News. I give the perfect example in the Value Investing Newsletter (see below). Anyway, I have been pumping out content like crazy to teach as many individuals a time efficient way of outperforming the market. The site is about 90% completed and its only a matter of putting the site through beta and getting my Guinea Pigs to give me feedback.

Price

I’m no sleazy salesman and i’m not going to hide the price only for you to find out its $50/mo. The price is $9.99/mo, first month is half price at $5/mo for the rest of the membership. I’m expecting a couple bugs in the first couple of months and i’m not going to charge full price for something with bugs. Fill out the form below to get a notice before everyone.

Magic Formula Stocks On The Move 5-23-09

alexg — Sat, 23 May 2009 15:38:47 +0000

Each week I track which stocks are moving in and out of the top 30 Magic Formula Stocks for companies with a minimum market cap of 50 and 2000 million. Here are the moves for the week ended 5-23-09.

Top 30/50 Million:

In:

ClickSoftware Technologies Ltd. (CKSW)
EarthLink, Inc. (ELNK)
Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc. (ENDP)
Great Northern Iron Ore Properties (GNI)

Out:

Cherokee Inc. (CHKE)
Innophos Holdings, Inc. (IPHS)
Tessera Technologies, Inc. (TSRA)
World Fuel Services Corporation (INT)

Top 30/2000 Million

In:

Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (DO)

Out:

Expedia, Inc. (EXPE)

BYD: Will America Buy It?

alexg — Thu, 21 May 2009 16:22:13 +0000

You have to love a story in which an individual takes control of a company and then works hard to build that company to compete against dinosaurs that have more advanced technology and have been in the business for a greater number of years. In the past year, BYD has garnered national attention as an individual in Omaha has taken a 10% stake in the Chinese auto manufacturer. A big reason for Buffett’s interest in BYD is its CEO Wang Chuanfu, who has built up this once bankrupt auto maker into a potential powerhouse in the hybrid and electric car arena. But, as Chinese auto manufactures try to capture market share in the U.S. some critics and individuals are going to start questioning the safety, quality, and political aspects of allowing Chinese autos on U.S. soil.

First impression on some of BYD’s products…..
This week was my first time actually seeing some of BYD’s products and I was really not impressed. Again, I am no car buff and I’m usually a couple years behind on the latest trends in the auto industry but if you had put a “KIA” logo in front of the auto, I would not be able to notice a difference.

Politics, Politics, Politics….
Two of Detroit’s “big” three are currently on the brink of bankruptcy and the last thing we need is another foreign manufacturer to make the restructuring process tougher. The American government has injected billions into GM and Chrysler and one has to wonder whether they will impose tariffs on imported Chinese autos. Whether BYD will produce autos is another issue. The biggest advantage over American manufacturers they have is their cost of labor. But, assuming they stick to producing their cars in China, that T word arise again (Tariffs). And if they do produce their autos in America, one has to take into account the role the UAW will play.

Public Perception and Men w/ Toys
Just like GM faces the infamous “low quality, dang thing breaks down every week” perception, BYD might face that “oh crap, its made in China” perception from the general public. At the same time, I have not read or seen anything that BYD will have a nice pick-up truck in the works. Personally, I prefer a nice pick up truck (see below) and apparently I am not the only one, as I counted the number of pick-ups to cars in my alley and the result was an overwhelming 12-1 in favor of the pick-ups ( the one was a secretary’s car , go figure).

Those boys from Omaha….
Obviously, Berkshire sees something in BYD to invest in the company. My guess, from videos and articles I have read, Wang Chuanfu is seen as the Chine Henry Ford with a passion and drive to get the job done. If so, this is great. I say this not because I’m spending 15 minutes of my life to point out some of the obstacles BYD might face, but because its great to see an individual work hard to get to the point where they’re at and see what they do next. I am watching this from a business perspective and a historical perspective. Who knows, maybe 20,40, 100 years from now BYD might be the auto manufacturer employing thousands of Americans similar to what Toyota and other foreign auto manufacturers are doing nowadays.

Meet Wuang Chuanfu

CVI: Top 50 Buy and Hold Blogs

alexg — Sun, 17 May 2009 15:56:41 +0000

Yes!!!!! Contrarian Value Investing (the thingymajjigger you are reading) made the list of top 50 buy and hold blogs over at ETF Database. Any recognition is good recognition. Actually, I put in a little work on the blog when I first started than I do now. Now I am concentrating on a membership site in which I am hoping to guide individual investors on the proper way to use the magic formula.

If your interested, use the form below to get updates on when we launch….

Some of the benefits you will learn at the new site:

The #1 reason you worry about your portfolio 24/7
Why you should not worry when earnings season begins
How to avoid value traps
Discover the #1 way to avoid a Ponzi Scheme (i.e Bernie Madoff)
Discover a 3 step-30 second approach to determine whether a stock requires further investigation
Works for small, mid and large caps

Of course there is much more!!!